The Future of Health in Post-Pandemic Brazil – Covid-19

Dear reader, we believe that this text will bring more questions for reflection than conclusions.

There is no doubt that Brazil will emerge from this crisis caused by the Coronavirus; but not without major changes, which will also affect the health system. To begin, two questions need to be answered and are fundamental for understanding how health will be in Brazil after Covid19, as follows:

  1. Which organizations will survive?
  2. What will be the new expectations and demands of people in the post Covid-19 world?

We will allow ourselves to focus on the supplementary health system in this first moment, after all, because it is such a broad main topic, we would have to have many more lines to talk about such a dense subject. And then, a little review of the concept of “modus vivendi”.

It is notorious to know that more than 75% of users of the private system are linked to some entity of a legal nature, which leads us to the following questions:

  • How many of these companies will still survive the post-covid19 scenario?
  • How many of these companies will have reduced headcount?
  • How much will it reduce people’s purchasing power?

The direct impact of these assumptions on health operators is quite large, with the real possibility of portfolio reduction, be it: insurance companies, group medicine, vertical, active in the low cost system, self-management and cooperatives.

This movement tends to generate new and profound attitudes on the part of buyers, enabling the insertion of new scenarios, such as:

  • Verticalization of health services;
  • Overt use of telemedicine;
  • Assertive use of artificial intelligence and “internet of things”;
  • Accredited network review.

Obviously, the next agent in the chain is the service provider (hospitals, doctors, diagnostic and treatment services) who will need to reinvent themselves quickly, due to the factors imagined above.

Providing services by intensifying innovative projects, acting strongly in the scope of value and access, focusing on the best clinical outcomes and further enchanting patients and their families, are just some of the master pillars of the new way of providing high quality services.

Consequently, the main link in this chain: the patient, will have new expectations for the post-covid19 world, where social distance will become part of everyday life and which will conflict strongly with the increasingly pressing need for people to touch and / or decrease their emotional needs.

It is worth considering that we will move from a VUCA world to a CESB world; until yesterday we lived in a world being VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous).

  • Volatile: because it brought us the dynamic nature of the changes, accompanied by a not constant speed;


  • Uncertain: Now, why little was there about certainties, especially when you have in front of you, shallow information, or unreasonable assumptions. Nothing, or almost nothing, is predictable in the VUCA world.


  • Complex: In an increasingly interdependent world, complexity has gained wings, bringing countless variables to the game, for decision making.


  • Ambiguous: ambiguity is a sister to the lack of clarity and concreteness, which led to the multiplicity of analyzes and interpretations.

However, a new perception of the world is emerging, where people are questioning themselves, reviewing values, changing their priorities, starting to highlight what really matters to themselves and those they love. Finally, to value life as it should be lived.

I believe that we will live in a CESB world (without the intention of creating a new acronym): Consensual, Equilibrium, Simple, Blessed.

 In the future environment the qualities that should predominate are:

  • Consensus: the agreement and uniformity of opinions, guided by common sense, will be milestones of the new times. Dissent and different conflicts have saddened us and left us perplexed by the inertia brought about by the confrontations. The human being will review his concepts and define that common sense is an important foundation of happiness.


  • Equilibrium: The result of the active actions is zero, whether in a static or dynamic moment. In other words, no matter how difficult we may suffer, the acquired resilience will bring the capacity to remain intact, ready for new scenarios and with a positive view of events. We will return to the center of ourselves much more quickly.


  • Simple: simplicity will grow again, and a lot, in our daily lives. A new world where “Less is more” is emerging. We were in a vicious and insane circle of: more cars, more clothes, more parties, more trips, more, more … The biggest objective, until yesterday, seemed to be to search intensely to have the best brands, the largest quantities, to show to others how important you are (or were). It is time for humanity to come out of the awareness that so many material things are necessary. They will wake up to a simpler and purer way of living. The beauty of nature, the importance of the family, the different expressions of God in our lives will again have their real value.


  • Blessed: in the total relationship with happiness, with the mood of those who are at peace with God. Controlled happiness is one of the true meanings of life. To understand again that small things can be done with a lot of love and that peace begins with a simple smile. Humility will be one of the great virtues.

Blessed are those who will live in a CESB world.

Erickson Blun

President of Vera Cruz Hospital – Campinas


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